Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
